The tails of the political curve of “normal” distribution
2021 started with a bang! Literally! The first Wednesday of the first week of the new year, empowered by Trump’s past and recent tweets and comments, heavily armed Proud Boys and other far-from-center rightwing insurgents (1) invaded D.C.
These “patriots” from the dark edges of the country’s ideologic spectrum--the far right tail of the curve of normal political distribution--popped out of right-fringe sewers. They attacked the Capital of our federal democratic republic, fouling its purpose and history, injuring and killing people.
The person who painted his face and wore horns was the posterchild. Others waved banners of hate: Nazi and confederate flags. What unfolded was/is a dark chapter in our history. The fallout from the chaos is further infecting and enabling heavily armed, zealous, hominids. That day, in the future, could be seen as a commemoration of their cry for freedom!!
February 13, 2021 was another day of infamy in the history of our Republic. The Senate failed to convict Trump. Social media buzzed with anger, jubilation, finger pointing, celebration, and told-you-so’s in repetitive and often nasty posts. On-line media and radio and TV pundits are still falling over each other spinning the Senate trial in one direction or another. In the first 1 ½ months of 2021, Trump instead of being erased from the record, solidified his place as a black blight in our history. He is, as of 2/13/2021, the bona fide truth-adverse defender and prophet of the fringe-right. Was this the intent of the forty-three Senate not guilty votes at his trial? Or were those Senators, like Lee, Graham, Cruz, (Senator’s Larry, Moe, and Curley), simply not willing to cross the ideological boundary? Seven Republicans had the courage to do so and did by voting for conviction.
Why did the insurgents invade D.C.? It’s clear from Senate testimony (02/11/21) that these cretins, from all over the country including Utah, were subtlety courted and groomed by Trump for months. How could these miss-guided people show up at precisely the same place and time without leadership and central communication? Trump used barely camouflaged rhetoric, played on ultra-conservative notions of patriotism, and obliquely re-opened the chasm of bigotry that was, however painfully slow, narrowing. He suggested to insurrectionists, that people of color, people not of Trump’s party, immigrants, and the Democratic Party were massed to bring Armageddon to the country. Trump words and hints facilitated a distorted definition of patriotism, of democracy. It was a call, in the hearts and minds of the fringe far right, to march into a holy war.
Much has been written and speculated about the rebel mob of January 6th, their race, political affiliation, ethnicity, geographic distribution, etc. It’s hard to refute that the mob was egged on by Trump. His defense team in the Senate trial, in the face of facts, fed the false narrative.
Did the insurgents represent the views and beliefs of all Republicans? Not at all!
I know many Republicans who were appalled by the insurrection and embarrassed that the mob represented, to the rest of the world, their party. Persons of any party who build a wall around their narrow definition of right and wrong, who irrationally believe that their party is the party that owns the moral high-ground and demonize citizens of another party, are a small percentage of the core values of being a Democrat or Republican. They are entrenched on the tails of the normal political distribution curve, are hardcore, strongly opinionated, and generally inflexible. Though they are a small percentage of the American population their noise can drown out more moderate voices.
A mob or group of people suffering from groupthink2 can turn violent and destructive at the slightest provocation. The attack on Democracy, 01/06/2021, in our country was another such event since its foundation. Groupthink mentality isn’t limited to crowds gathered in the town square or for a few hours 01/06/2021 in the halls of Congress. Some clubs, fraternal organizations, congregations, are quietly and peacefully groupthink. The January groupthink mob in D.C. was not quiet. They were exclusive, vociferous, dangerous, heavily armed, and jacked up on rhetoric and barely camouflaged direction from the President and his minions.
What are the downstream consequences of these events? The short answer is who knows! The last four years coupled with the invasion of 2/6/21 and the Senate vote 2/13/21 will have a lasting impact on the country, why we vote, how to vote(2, etc. The country drifts in political jerks left and right but the last two decades have seen wider gaps, driven by party fundamentalists at the fringes of both parties. They are the tails of the political normal distribution curve who are not only rigidly encamped but they are also dug in. Those on the right wing are stoked by Trump’s words and many are armed. Both tails fervently know they own the truth!
How will these incidents impact the future? The various outcomes can be somewhat identified but weighting one over the others isn’t easy because political and ideological changes in other countries, new technology, political actions, natural disasters, and viruses, like Covid-19 pop up, seemingly, unexpectedly. Their influence is immeasurable in the short term, hard to quantify, and often persistent.
Hate groups seem to have become a more visible constant in the undercurrent of our country’s history.
The resurgence of radical-right groups ebbs and flows depending on the issue. The Southern Poverty Center (4) compiled a disturbing list of these groups. They fester in most parts of the country. The pandemic, 2020 election, intra-community and or family reactions to these events has modified my thinking and future plans from a year ago. The future bottom-line is a sum of the past and our personal and group reaction to it. And we report out in a narrative we shape to get through the day. I struggle with summing up my/our reactions and to write a narrative my grandchildren and their grandchildren will understand.
The story of the future of our nation is, hopefully, a good one. We’ve survived both internal and external strife. It should be one of thoughtful moderation, informed cooperation, and solidly occupying the large space between the tails of the political curve of normal distribution. However, the impact of not collectively shedding the wildcards of the past four years fuels future uncertainty. Trump isn’t going away soon. His rabid followers, and both tails of the political curve, are gaining visibility, momentum, and strength. The Senate was weakened by the vote 02/13/21. How we voted in 2020 and will likely vote in the future, influences from political changes in other countries, climate instability, dwindling resources, war, world and national economies, and etc. etc. are just a few future events that will definitely influence the course of our history. Hang on, keep an open mind, and don’t give up!!
(1) https://www.wired.com/2017/05/field-guide-far-right/
(2) Groupthink is a phenomenon that occurs when a group of well-intentioned people makes irrational or non-optimal decisions spurred by the urge to conform or the belief that dissent is impossible. The problematic or premature consensus that is characteristic of groupthink may be fueled by a particular agenda—or it may be due to group members valuing harmony and coherence above critical thought. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/groupthink
(4) List of hate groups from the Southern Poverty Law Center https://www.splcenter.org/news/2021/02/01/year-hate-2020